As the second phase of polling in the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 concluded on Tuesday evening, the political spotlight has shifted to the anticipated exit polls. Voters across multiple constituencies exercised their democratic right, deciding the fate of numerous candidates, while analysts and political observers eagerly await the early signals of which alliance may emerge dominant.
Lessons from the 2020 Bihar Exit Polls
Predicted vs. Actual Outcome
During the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, most exit polls had forecasted a narrow victory for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. An analysis of 11 surveys suggested the alliance would win around 125 seats, just above the majority threshold of 122 in the 243-member House, while projecting JD(U)-led NDA at 108 seats.
Contrary to these predictions, the actual results favored the NDA, which secured 125 seats, crossing the halfway mark, while the Mahagathbandhan won 110. At that time, the undivided Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) contested independently, and the Mukesh Sahani-led Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), now aligned with the Opposition, was then part of the NDA.
Accuracy of Pollsters
On average, the 2020 exit polls underestimated the NDA by 17 seats and overestimated the Mahagathbandhan by 15. Among pollsters, Patriotic Voter, P-Marq, and ABP News-CVoter were closest to predicting the NDA majority. In contrast, News18-Today’s Chanakya had the widest margin of error, forecasting 55 seats for the NDA and 180 for the Mahagathbandhan.
Three agencies — Republic-Jan Ki Baat, India Today/Aaj Tak-Axis My India, and News18-Today’s Chanakya — had projected an outright majority for the Mahagathbandhan, which ultimately fell short.
Bihar Exit Poll Trends in 2015
The Mahagathbandhan Wave
In the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, the RJD and JD(U) joined forces with Congress to form the Mahagathbandhan, while the NDA was led by the BJP in alliance with the undivided LJP, Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (now Rashtriya Lok Morcha), and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).
Six exit polls predicted a tight contest, giving the Mahagathbandhan an average of 123 seats and the NDA 114. However, the final outcome was a decisive victory for the Mahagathbandhan, which won 178 seats, leaving the NDA with only 58.
Accuracy Insights
Among the polling agencies, three correctly forecasted the Mahagathbandhan victory, two favored the NDA, and one anticipated a hung Assembly. Overall, these polls underestimated the Mahagathbandhan by 55 seats and overestimated the NDA by 56 seats.
Political Dynamics: The Revolving Chair in Bihar
Despite the Mahagathbandhan’s triumph in 2015, the alliance fractured in 2017 when Chief Minister Nitish Kumar parted ways with the RJD and rejoined the NDA to form a new government with the BJP.
As Bihar approaches another crucial electoral phase, the upcoming exit polls are expected to offer early insights into the possible results. However, given the mixed record of accuracy in previous elections, political analysts and parties are likely to treat these predictions cautiously until the official counting day.
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