Bihar Exit Polls Hint at NDA’s Decisive Comeback

As the final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections concluded on Tuesday, November 11, 2025, multiple exit polls forecast a commanding lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), suggesting that the ruling coalition is well on track to retain power in the state. The official counting of votes is scheduled for November 14.

Major Exit Polls Indicate NDA Majority

According to Matrize, the NDA is projected to secure between 147 and 167 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) may win 70 to 90 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is expected to gain 0 to 2 seats, with others likely to win 2 to 8 seats. Similarly, People’s Insight predicts a tally of 133–148 seats for the NDA, 87–102 for MGB, 0–2 for JSP, and 3–6 for others.

Consistent Trend Across Pollsters

People’s Pulse forecasts that the NDA will capture 133–159 seats, the MGB 75–101, the JSP 0–5, and others 2–8. The JVC Poll echoes this sentiment, projecting 135–150 seats for the NDA, 88–103 for MGB, 0–1 for JSP, and 3–6 for others. Chanakya Strategies gives the NDA a range of 130–138 seats, the MGB 100–108, no seats for the JSP, and 3–5 for others.

Additional Projections Reinforce NDA’s Edge

Pollster P-Marq anticipates 142–162 seats for the NDA, 80–98 for MGB, 1–4 for JSP, and 0–3 for others. Dainik Bhaskar predicts 145–160 for NDA, 73–91 for MGB, 0–3 for JSP, and 5–7 for others. Meanwhile, DV Research estimates 137–152 seats for NDA, 83–98 for MGB, 2–4 for JSP, and 1–8 for others.

TIF Research-NAI and Upcoming Poll Results

TIF Research-NAI also signals a major triumph for the BJP-led alliance, projecting 145–163 seats for the NDA and 76–95 for the opposition. Results from Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya are expected to be announced on Wednesday, November 12, 2025.

Record Voter Turnout Reflects Public Enthusiasm

In the second phase, voter turnout reached 68.52% across 122 Assembly segments by 7 p.m. on November 11, with the final figure expected to rise further. The first phase also witnessed historic participation, recording the highest-ever turnout of 64.69% across 121 constituencies on November 6.

ECI’s Caution on Exit Poll Projections

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has previously cautioned against overreliance on exit poll results. Former Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar emphasized that such projections often create misleading expectations that diverge from actual results. He urged polling agencies and the media, especially television networks, to engage in self-introspection and adopt corrective practices to uphold electoral integrity.

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Sorit Chaudhary

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